The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to extend losses and open lower on Thursday after the announcement of the US Federal Reserve policy, and cautiousness amid the ongoing Israel-Iran war.
The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a weak start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 24,740 level, a discount of nearly 87 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
The US Federal Reserve decided to keep the benchmark interest rates steady at 4.25% to 4.5%, while the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) officials expect to cut the interest rates by a total of 50 basis points (bps), or 0.50%, in 2025.
On Wednesday, the domestic equity market extended fall for the second straight session to end lower.
The Sensex declined 138.64 points, or 0.17%, to close at 81,444.66, while the Nifty 50 settled 41.35 points, or 0.17%, lower at 24,812.05.
Here’s what to expect from Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty today:
Nifty 50 Prediction
Nifty 50 slipped 0.17% to end at 24,812.05, forming a daily candle with a high wick on the upper side with a small body.
“Nifty 50 again failed to surpass the crucial resistance level of 25,000, concluding the session on a weak note. Despite this intraday pressure, the Nifty remains in a consolidation phase positionally, with 24,700 now serving as a key support level on the downside. On the higher side, the 25,000 level continues to act as a strong resistance,” said Nandish Shah – Deputy Vice President, HDFC Securities.
According to Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities, the Nifty 50 index remained within a tight consolidation band as it has struggled to cross the 25,000 zone over the past few sessions. The absence of follow-through buying reflects hesitation at higher levels.
“Nifty 50 slipped below the 20 EMA, while the broader trend remains intact as the price trades above the 50-Day SMA. The daily RSI has declined further to 53 and continues to exhibit a downward trend from its recent peak of nearly 62. This slope also confirms a bearish divergence, as the price maintained highs but momentum failed to support the move. The ADX remains below 25, and the +DI has now decisively crossed below the –DI, suggesting a weakening trend strength,” Mehra said.
A breach below 24,680 could accelerate short-term weakness, while resistance remains at 24,940, followed by 25,000, he added.
VLA Ambala, Co-Founder of Stock Market Today said that the Nifty 50 formed a Bearish Shooting Star pattern at the daily time frame, closing the session in the red zone.
“According to technical charts, Nifty 50 was near the 20-day EMA, with its RSI at 52. Nifty 50 could gather support between 24,650 and 24,520 and meet resistance near 24,850 and 24,890,” Ambala said.
Bank Nifty Prediction
Bank Nifty index closed 114.60 points, or 0.21%, higher at 55,828.75 on Wednesday, forming a small bull candle with a small upper shadow, signaling consolidation.
“Going ahead, only a sustained close above the 56,000 mark could pave the way for further upside towards the 56,600 and 57,000 levels. However, inability to surpass this hurdle may result in continued range-bound price action between 56,000 and 55,000, with a likely shift in focus to stock-specific moves,” said Bajaj Broking Research.
According to the brokerage firm, on the downside, a decisive break down below the 55,000 mark would invalidate the current consolidation structure and open the gates for a retest of the key support zone in the 54,500 – 54,000 region in the coming sessions.
Om Mehra highlighted that the Bank Nifty index respected the trendline drawn from the May lows and continues to hold above the Supertrend level of 55,000.
“The daily RSI stands at 53, recovering from lower zones but still below the 60 mark, reflecting a cautious undertone. Meanwhile, the MACD remains in negative territory, but the flattening histogram indicates a neutral stance. The overall formation suggests that the Bank Nifty index is caught between a rising support trendline and a falling resistance trendline, forming a short-term contraction. A directional move is likely once either side is breached. Until then, the price may continue to oscillate within the 55,200 – 56,200 range,” Mehra said.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
