US stock futures opened lower Sunday evening, as President Trump’s decision to enter the US into the Israel-Iran conflict threw a fresh bout of uncertainty into a market rushing to grapple with the aftereffects.
Futures tied to the S&P 500 (ES=F) fell 0.6%, while those on the tech-heavy Nasdaq (NQ=F) dropped 0.7%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) lost around 0.6%.
Oil prices jumped, with WTI crude (CL=F), the US benchmark, up over 4% at last check near $77 a barrel. Brent crude (BZ=F) futures were also up over 4%, trading above $80 per barrel. Oil had already surged over 10% since Israel launched strikes on Iran just over a week ago.
Trump late Saturday announced the US had struck Iran’s three main nuclear enrichment facilities, calling the strikes a success and claiming the sites had been “totally obliterated” — a declaration that has since come under scrutiny. He threatened Iran with more attacks if the country did not quickly seek peace talks.
The focus is already turning toward Iran’s next step — both militarily and diplomatically. Its foreign minister on Sunday said it reserves “all options,” though he stopped short of threatening US assets or interests in the region — a possible sign of restraint.
The country could aim for leverage given its status as the fourth-largest oil producer in the OPEC+ coalition. Analysts have speculated about the impact to prices if Iran were to order the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which around one-fifth of global oil and gas flows. Iran’s parliament was reported to back a closure, though experts are skeptical Iran will follow through on the threat.
In any case, a subsequent oil price shock could have ramifications for the US economy, potentially triggering higher inflation and leading the Federal Reserve to delay rate cuts.
The stock market remained relatively sanguine in the first week of blows between Israel and Iran, with the major indexes finishing last week largely unchanged. But early signals Sunday pointed to investors fleeing other risk assets into safer havens. Bitcoin (BTC-USD) retreated, last under the $100,000 level. Meanwhile, gold (GC=F) ticked higher.
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