Oil Prices Drop to Levels Before the Israel-Iran Conflict 2025 Started
According to a CNN report, on Tuesday, Brent crude, which is the global oil benchmark, declined 6.1% to $67.14 a barrel. While the West Texas Intermediate crude, which is the US oil benchmark, dropped 6% to $64.37 a barrel, as reported by CNN.
Even though oil prices jumped after the Iran-Israel conflict started, which reached a five-month high last week, they fell on Monday after Iran launched targeted missile strikes on US bases in Qatar, as reported by CNN.
The US crude fell 7.2% to settle at $68.51 a barrel, which was the biggest one-day drop since early April and one of its worst days over the past three years, according to the CNN report. Brent closed at $71.48 a barrel as it dropped 7.2%, the steepest fall since August 2022, according to the report.
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These price levels are in a similar range to the closing prices in the days before Israel launched a strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, which then led to a 12-day conflict, with both sides firing a barrage of missiles into the other’s territory, and even a direct military involvement by Israel’s biggest ally, the United States, as reported by CNN.Oil prices fell on Tuesday after US president Donald Trump declared a ceasefire on late Monday, however, just hours later, Israel accused Iran of violating the terms, according to the report. While Iran dismissed Israel’s allegations, the US president on Tuesday morning flashed intense anger as the ceasefire seemed to grow fragile, but the ceasefire appeared to hold as of Tuesday afternoon, reported CNN.
Market Experts React
Commodities specialist at Mizuho Securities, Robert Yawger pointed out that, “There could be hiccups along the way, but the market is saying this (conflict) is likely over,” as quoted in the report.
While, senior market analyst at FXTM, Lukman Otunuga cautioned that “Markets breathed a sigh of relief following Trump’s ceasefire declaration, but the celebration could be short-lived,” quoted CNN. Otunuga highlighted that, “If tensions flare again or the ceasefire is violated, we could see a swift return to risk aversion — boosting safe havens like gold and pressuring global equities,” as quoted in the report.
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Potential Oil Price Surges if Strait of Hormuz Is Blocked
However, the ceasefire has reduced the possibility that global oil supplies will be disrupted, according to CNN. Even though most investors have feared that Iran could block the Strait of Hormuz, which is a critical waterway ferrying around a quarter of the world’s oil supply, CNN reported, citing the figures from the International Energy Agency.
Goldman Sachs had projected that oil prices could surge over $100 a barrel if there is an “extended disruption” to the strait, reported CNN.
Outlook from Industry Experts
Meanwhile, the global head of commodity markets at Rystad Energy, Mukesh Sahdev, said that assuming the ceasefire holds, Brent crude could hover “near the $70 per barrel level while clarity on a US-Iran deal emerges,” as quoted in the report.
He also highlighted that, “The prospect of severe economic fallout from a potential blockade (of the strait) likely motivated both sides to agree to the ceasefire, if it is indeed genuine,” quoted CNN in its report.
FAQs
Why are oil prices dropping now?
Because of the ceasefire declared on Iran-Israel to ease the conflict, which has reduced fears about oil supply disruptions, as per a CNN report.
What triggered the recent spike in oil prices?
The conflict between Iran and Israel that started on June 13, including missile strikes and military tensions, drove prices up, as per the CNN report.
