Is a $120K Bitcoin Breakout Imminent? Here’s What the Data Shows
Bitcoin briefly dipped below $100,000 during a tense 12-day conflict involving Israeli and U.S. airstrikes on Iran, followed by retaliatory attacks on Israel and U.S. military bases in Qatar. Market sentiment was rattled until U.S. President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Iran had agreed to a ceasefire — news that swiftly boosted global risk appetite.
Following this geopolitical relief, Bitcoin regained momentum and surged past the $106,000 level on Wednesday. Now, fresh data points to a potential rally toward $120K, fueled by both technical recovery and ongoing global uncertainty.
Bullish Breakout Ahead?
Bitcoin appears poised for a major breakout after reclaiming its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) — a critical indicator often seen as support during bullish market phases. According to CryptoQuant, when Bitcoin falls below the 50-day EMA and then quickly recovers, it often triggers a 10–20% upward move.
This historical trend seems to be repeating: after a brief dip below the EMA, Bitcoin has now closed above it for three consecutive days, a signal of renewed bullish strength.
CryptoQuant analysts believe this pattern could mark the start of a new bullish leg in the ongoing cycle. Still, they caution that geopolitical risks — especially developments involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran — could bring short-term volatility. In such an environment, traders are advised to limit leverage and manage risk carefully.
Despite external uncertainties, the 50-day EMA reclaim is a key technical milestone, reinforcing the possibility of a breakout toward $120,000.
On-Chain Metrics Reinforce Bullish Structure
Beyond technical charts, on-chain data provides further support for Bitcoin’s uptrend. A key metric, the Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STH-RP), currently sits at $98K — offering both psychological and technical support.
With Bitcoin now trading at around $106.4K, the 7.2% premium over STH-RP suggests reduced speculative excess and a healthier market structure. Historically, bounces off the STH-RP have signaled strong demand and a continuation of the bullish trend.
In addition, long-term holders remain unshaken, with their cost basis near $32K — effectively creating a supply floor. This locked-up supply limits downside pressure, helping maintain the uptrend of higher highs and higher lows. As long as BTC stays above the STH-RP, the bullish narrative remains intact. A sustained drop below it, however, could trigger a correction.
