Can US dollar bulls force a bullish reclaim on Monday, or will the downtrend continue through the remainder of 2025?
Watch today’s video for the key levels to watch as we head into July, including updates on the DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, and XAUUSD.
US Dollar Index (DXY) Forecast
Calling the 97.70 level on the DXY “key” or “critical” feels like an understatement, and it is.
It’s a channel support that has been in place since 2011. It’s also a horizontal level that was instrumental during the 2022 rally.
As I write this, the DXY is well below that mark. That alone isn’t a deal breaker for dollar bulls, but Monday being the month and quarter close is a big deal.
If the US dollar fails to reclaim 97.70 by Monday’s close, the DXY will likely continue lower in July. However, I’m not ruling out a surprise end to the quarter.
Month-end price action is usually erratic and volatile. Throw in a quarterly close, and the DXY trading near a 14-year level, and you have a recipe for fireworks, or at least the potential.
For now, 97.70 is key resistance for the DXY. A high-time-frame reclaim would be bullish. The next key support for the USD is 94.65.
EURUSD Forecast
EURUSD is currently trading above its channel bottom from 1985. As explained on Thursday, even with pre-euro pricing before 1999, the channel on the monthly and quarterly time frames is textbook.
The euro fell below support in 2022, tested it as resistance in 2023, and is currently well above the 1.1500 level with two trading days remaining in June.
A monthly and quarterly close above 1.1500 will confirm a significant EURUSD bullish reclaim. On the other hand, a monthly close below 1.1500 would keep the area intact as resistance.
I will be surprised if we don’t see volatility on Monday. Given where the euro is trading relative to 1.1500 and that Monday is the monthly and quarterly close, it wouldn’t surprise me to see market makers play a few games.
Key support for EURUSD is 1.1570 and 1.1500, with key resistance at 1.1900.
GBPUSD Forecast
GBPUSD is at a crossroads. The uptrend has been aggressive, and buyers are in control. However, the pair is testing the confluence of resistance at 1.3750.
That’s a key horizontal level and the intersection of the two trend lines we’ve discussed in recent videos. Those trend lines form a potential rising wedge.
However, just because a market is testing resistance does not mean it’s bearish, nor does it justify a trade. The GBPUSD has trended higher throughout the year, and the DXY is currently below 97.70.
That could change, but until it does, GBPUSD remains bullish.
USDCHF Forecast
USDCHF dropped below 0.8040 last week, a key level that has held as range support since April. It’s unclear whether the breakdown holds, as it will depend on Monday’s price action.
0.8040 is the current resistance for USDCHF. However, a high-time-frame reclaim would be bullish for the pair.
If USDCHF is unable to reclaim 0.8040 by Monday, the level will shift to resistance, and 0.7780 could be the next target.
On the other hand, if buyers can reclaim 0.8040, it would keep USDCHF range-bound with resistance at 0.8200.
XAUUSD (Gold) Forecast
Gold broke down last week, failing to hold above its 2025 trend line at $3,315. As long as XAUUSD is below the $3,330 area, gold is at risk of a further correction.
Last week’s breakdown could suggest a resumption of the range between $3,130 and $3,430. But it’s difficult to say with confidence until we see where the month closes on Monday.
A sustained break below $3,330 flips the area from support to resistance, with the $3,270 mid-range serving as the new support level, followed by the $3,130 range lows.
Alternatively, if XAUUSD can reclaim $3,330 on the high time frames, it would re-expose the $3,430 range highs.
