A number of Wall Street firms are raising their S&P 500 (^GSPC) targets as initial investor panic from President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs continues to subside — but that doesn’t mean strategists are expecting a solid run higher for stocks in the second half of the year.
In a note to clients on Sunday, RBC Capital Markets boosted its year-end S&P 500 target to 6,250 from a prior target of 5,730. But the firm’s head of US equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, explained that the adjustment comes amid the market’s more than 25% bounce back from April lows, reached when Trump announced a wide array of higher-than-expected tariffs on goods from various countries. Those tariffs were delayed, and the US is now in the process of negotiating them.
RBC is now essentially moving its target back to where it sat in mid-March before the bulk of the tariff turmoil began. In fact, a target of 6,250 means the benchmark index would end the year mostly flat from its closing price last week, when it notched a fresh record.
“We feel neutral on the outlook for stocks in the 2nd half of 2025, and are mindful that our new price target is essentially in line with recent levels,” Calvasina wrote. “We expect choppy conditions in the back half of the year, and swings in both directions.”
Calvasina noted that, among other risks, it’s likely still “too early to stop worrying about tariff impacts” on corporate earnings.
Read more: 5 ways to tariff-proof your finances
Overall, eight strategists among the 14 tracked by Yahoo Finance currently project the S&P 500 to close either nearly flat from current levels or lower. Even those who predict an increase aren’t pounding the table for the rally to continue in the short term.
Yardeni Research president Ed Yardeni, who maintains a 6,500 year-end target for the S&P 500, wrote in a note to clients on Sunday that the recent V-shaped recovery for stocks could soon look more like a “square root shaped pattern,” where the path higher stalls.
Yardeni pointed out that his team had expected Trump to relent on his tariff back-and-forth by now. But that is not happening. New letters from Trump over the weekend threatened 30% duties on goods from Mexico and the European Union. The latest tariff actions follow a 35% tariff on Canadian goods announced last week.
Yardeni believes his 6,500 target could still be reached by year end, but added, “Trump must get the tariff issue resolved in coming weeks.”
Read more: The latest news and updates on Trump’s tariffs
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