The Indian stock market remained under pressure for a second straight session on Friday, July 25, with key benchmarks — the Sensex and Nifty 50 — posting sharp losses. The broader market also saw notable declines, with mid- and small-cap indices slipping as much as 2 per cent.
During the session, the Sensex tumbled 786 points, nearly 1 per cent, to hit an intraday low of 81,397.69, while the Nifty 50 slid 1 per cent to touch 24,806.35.
“The Indian equity market ended lower for the fourth consecutive week, as weak Q1 earnings and cautious global sentiment weighed on investor confidence. The Nifty 50 breached the key level of 24,900, along with the significant FII’s net short positions reflect broad-based selling pressure. Mid- & small-cap indices saw steeper corrections, underperforming the benchmark. The sectoral laggards, including IT and financials, were adversely impacted by subdued guidance and emerging concerns around asset quality. Subpar aggregate earnings performance is likely to challenge the sustainability of current premium valuations across benchmark indices, and we expect a consolidation in the near term,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Investments Limited.
Indian stock market trends
Markets extended their losing streak for the fourth consecutive week as cautious sentiment persisted amid mixed signals.
Following the pattern seen over the past two weeks, the benchmark indices showed resilience and made a recovery attempt in the first three sessions.
However, by the end of the week, the Nifty settled at 24,837.00, while the Sensex closed at 81,463.09.
On the Nifty outlook next week, Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivative Research, Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates Ltd, said, “ The domestic benchmark index, Nifty, began the day with a gap down, witnessed continued selling pressure from the morning, and eventually settled on a negative note at 24,837. Meanwhile, the volatility index, India VIX, rose by 5.15% to 11.28, indicating increased market volatility. Technically, on the daily chart, Nifty broke the key support of 24,880 and formed a big bearish candle, signalling weakness. As per this breakdown, the index may extend its decline toward the 24,500–24,460 zone, where the next major support is placed. Hence, short-term traders are advised to adopt a sell-on-bounce approach.”
Meanwhile, on the Bank Nifty outlook, it added, “ The Bank Nifty index opened on a positive note but witnessed strong selling pressure and settled the session on a negative note at 56,529. Technically, Bank Nifty breached its 50-DEMA support and formed a bearish candle on the daily chart, reflecting sustained selling at higher levels. Last week’s low of Bank Nifty is placed near 56,200, which will now act as the next crucial support. Until the index decisively crosses 57,320, traders are advised to book profits on bounces and wait for a clear breakout for fresh upside momentum.”
Here are the key triggers for stock markets in the coming week:
US-India trade deal
The Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) addressed a query regarding the United States’ move to reimpose tariffs on Indian exports, stating that both nations are currently working on concluding the first phase of a mutually advantageous, multi-sector Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA).
The foreign ministry stated that trade teams from both nations are currently involved in active negotiations on the Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA). The ongoing discussions aim to take a comprehensive approach to further enhance and deepen trade ties by improving mutual market access, lowering tariff and non-tariff barriers, and fostering closer integration of supply chains.
US Fed meeting
The Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet on July 29–30 to decide whether to adjust interest rates. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders in the fed funds futures market are assigning over a 95% probability that the central bank will keep its current target rate range steady at 4.25% to 4.5%.
Q1 earnings 2025
As the earnings season unfolds, investors will closely monitor results from major companies like IndusInd Bank, Asian Paints, NTPC, Tata Steel, Hindustan Unilever, Mahindra & Mahindra, Maruti Suzuki, Sun Pharma, ITC, and others to gauge sectoral strength and overall corporate performance.
Key economic data
The beginning of the new month will shift focus to important economic indicators, such as Industrial Production (IIP) and the HSBC Manufacturing PMI, which are set to be released on August 1.
Auto sales data
Auto stocks will remain in focus as companies will be declaring their monthly auto sales figures.
IPO Activity
The primary market will witness a flurry of new IPOs as fourteen new public issues – five in mainboard and eight in SME segment – will open for subscription next week.
Apart from new public issues, the market will also witness ten new listings in the coming week.
FII Activity
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) turned net sellers of equities worth ₹1,980 crore on July 25, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) recorded net purchases of ₹2,138 crore, as per provisional data from the NSE.
On the day, DIIs bought shares totaling ₹12,786 crore and sold equities worth ₹10,648 crore. In contrast, FPIs purchased stocks worth ₹12,831 crore but sold ₹14,811 crore.
So far this year, FPIs have offloaded equities worth ₹1.43 lakh crore on a net basis, whereas DIIs have emerged as net buyers, investing ₹3.84 lakh crore in Indian equities.
Crude Oil Prices
Oil prices declined on Friday, closing at a three-week low, as concerns grew over weak economic data from the U.S. and China, along with indications of rising supply.
Brent crude futures dropped by 74 cents, or 1.1%, ending at $68.44, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slid 87 cents, or 1.3%, to close at $65.16.
Gold Prices
Gold prices declined on Friday, pressured by a firmer U.S. dollar and encouraging developments in U.S.-EU trade talks, which reduced the appeal of the metal as a safe-haven asset.
Spot gold dropped 0.9% to $3,336.01 per ounce by 2:01 p.m. ET (1801 GMT), while U.S. gold futures closed 1.1% lower at $3,335.60.
Technical View
According to Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd, the Nifty failed to breach the 25,250 resistance and slipped below the immediate support at 24,900.
“ Going forward, the outlook favors further downside, with immediate support at 24,700 and major support in the 24,450–24,550 zone. On the upside, the 25,100–25,250 range will act as a key resistance zone, with the 20-day EMA limiting any potential rebound,” Mishra said.
On the Bank Nifty outlook, Mishra said that Bank Nifty, on the other hand, is showing resilience and is currently trading within the 56,000–57,400 range.
“ A decisive break on either side could trigger the next leg of the directional move. In case of a breakdown, the next crucial support level will be 55,500. A breakout, however, could push the index toward 58,200–58,400,” he added.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
