Australia:
Wed: CPI (Q2), Rio Tinto interim result
Thu: Retail trade (Jun), Private sector credit (Jun), Building approvals (Jun), Trade prices (Q2)
Fri: Home prices (Jul)
International:
Mon: US/China trade talks (2 days) in Stockholm
Tue: US — Consumer confidence (Jul), Home prices (May), Job openings (Jun)
Wed: US — GDP (Q2)
EU — GDP (Q2)
CA — Bank of Canada rates meeting
Thu: US — Federal Reserve rates meeting, Core PCE inflation (Jun)
JP — BoJ rates meeting
Fri: US — Non-farm payrolls, unemployment (Jul), Tariff deadline expires
To paraphrase Roy and H.G., who in turn paraphrased Mark Twain, it’s a week where too much macro stuff is barely enough.
Although, for all the inflation and GDP updates, as well as global rates decisions, the big event may well be the August 1 US tariff deadline on Friday.
From a local perspective, the key event is Q2 CPI (Wednesday).
CBA is forecasting headline inflation rose 0.8% over the quarter, easing the annual rate to 2.2%.
“The more policy relevant trimmed mean CPI is expected to have increased by 0.7%/qtr which would see the annual rate dip only marginally to 2.8%/yr — but rounding could see a 0.7%/qtr and 2.7% configuration,” the CBA economics team wrote in a weekend note.
“Looking to the August RBA Board meeting, our base case remains for a 25bp rate cut given the annual trimmed mean inflation continues to moderate,” CBA said.
Other local economic data next week includes building approvals, retail trade, private sector credit and trade prices on Thursday and July home prices on Friday.
The always interesting RBA deputy governor Andrew Hauser is taking part in a “fireside chat” on Thursday.
The August reporting season gets underway with Rio Tinto releasing its interim results on Wednesday — underlying profit is forecast to edge up 3% to $US5.2 billion from the previous half, while the interim dividend is expected to be cut.
Resmed and Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield release full year numbers on Thursday.
There’s a deluge of key events in the US this week, including Friday’s expiration of the tariff deadline.
The Fed is universally expected to keep rates on hold (Thursday) given its “wait and see” stance on inflation.
Thursday also sees the release of the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, the PCE deflator.
The market has priced in a solid 0.3% increase in the PCE over June, an indication that inflation gaining momentum.
US Q2 GDP (Wednesday) is expected to show a rebound after the first quarter’s contraction, which was dragged down by a flurry of imports ahead the US tariff crusade.
“So far, the GDP rebound looks modest at best, not only because of an unexpected, renewed widening of the trade deficit in May — owing in large part to lacklustre exports — but also because of soft consumer spending,” Societe Generale wrote in a weekend note.
Eurozone Q2 GDP growth, also out on Wednesday, is expected to have flat-lined over the quarter and up a pallid 1.2% over the year.
China’s Politburo members are also scheduled to assemble this week to map out economic policy for the rest of the year.
An announcement on further stimulus measures is not expected.
