Microsoft Levels to Watch as Earnings on Deck
30 minutes ago
Microsoft (MSFT) shares fell slightly on Monday but remain near a record high as investors await the scheduled release of the company’s quarterly results on Wednesday.
Just as with other Magnificent Seven companies, investors will be seeking updates on the tech giant’s spending plans as the AI arms race among tech rivals intensifies. Last week, Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL) lifted its projected 2025 capital expenditures to $85 billion, up from its prior forecast of $75 billion.
Microsoft shares slipped 0.2% to close Monday’s session at $512.50. The stock has gained nearly 22% since the start of the year, boosted by strong growth in the company’s Intelligent Cloud segment and successful efforts to integrate AI into its Copilot chatbot and Azure cloud platform.
Since gapping decisively above the 200-day moving average (MA) in early May, Microsoft shares have trended steadily higher within as ascending channel. During this time, the 50-day MA crossed above the 200-day MA to form a bullish golden cross, while the relative strength index has remained near overbought territory to signal strong price momentum.
It’s also worth noting that volatility has fallen sharply in the stock since it bottomed in early April as shown by the average true range percent indicator—a technical tool that signals how much an asset typically moves as a percentage of its price.
The measured move technique forecasts a potential upside target of $620. Investors should watch crucial support levels on Microsoft’s chart around $468 and $430.
Read the full technical analysis piece here.
-Timothy Smith
Wall Street Analysts Getting More Bullish
1 hr 26 min ago
Some analysts are sounding more upbeat than they have for a while.
Oppenheimer on Monday lifted its year-end price target for the S&P 500 to 7100 from 5950, among the highest held by major Wall Street brokerage firms. The outlook—which brings its target back to where it was to start the year—implies upside of about 11% from Friday’s close. Morgan Stanley said the probability of its bull case, which puts the S&P 500 at 7200 in the middle of 2026, was firming up.
Numbers like those are a long way from the levels below 5000 seen in April after President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement spooked investors. The next few days will test that optimism.
“Although much uncertainty and worry prevailed for some time both with trade policy and geopolitical events, and given the multitude of potential outcomes, we’d note that cooler heads prevailed — leading to positive outcomes, at least for now,” Oppenheimer wrote.
S&P 500 companies on are track to report second-quarter year-over-year earnings growth of more than 6%, according to FactSet. The pressure is on the part of the Magnificent 7 posse reporting this week to surprise to the upside, either with their respective results or their outlooks, given how much weight they carry in the broad market index.
So far this reporting season, S&P 500 companies are showing “mixed results,” per FactSet’s John Butters. While the percentage of S&P companies surprising on the upside, 80%, is above five- and 10-year averages, the magnitude of those surprises remains below historical averages.
“The capitulatory price action and EPS estimate cuts we saw in April of this year around Liberation Day represented the end of a rolling earnings recession that began in 2022,” Morgan Stanley equity strategist Michael Wilson wrote in a note published Monday. “Now, we appear to be transitioning to a rolling recovery backdrop,” he said.
Read the full article here.
-Crystal Kim
Firefly Aerospace’s IPO Could Push Valuation Above $5 Billion
2 hr 35 min ago
Firefly Aerospace said Monday that it plans to price its initial public offering between $35 and $39 per share, potentially valuing the commercial space technology company north of $5 billion.
The IPO, which Firefly filed a prospectus for earlier this month, will see the company offer 16.2 million shares, raising between $567 million and $631.8 million. The company said it plans to use the proceeds to pay back funds it has previously borrowed. Firefly said it has applied for a listing on the Nasdaq exchange, to debut under the “FLY” ticker.
Firefly said it expects to have about 140.55 million shares outstanding after the IPO, with its price range bringing the company’s valuation between $4.92 billion and $5.48 billion. Its shares outstanding could also come close to 143 million if underwriters fully exercise their option to purchase additional shares, the company said.
Firefly was valued at more than $2 billion last November, when the company announced the closing of a $175 million Series D funding round, and earlier this year received a $50 million investment from defense contractor Northrop Grumman.
In March, Firefly’s Blue Ghost lander successfully reached the moon’s surface, making Firefly the first commercial company to “achieve a fully successful soft-landing on the Moon.”
In its prospectus, Firefly said it generated $60.79 million in revenue in 2024, with a net loss of about $231.13 million, compared to $55.24 million in revenue and a $135.46 million net loss in 2023. In the first quarter of 2025, however, Firefly nearly eclipsed its full-year 2024 revenue mark at $55.86 million, with a net loss of $60.1 million.
The IPO market had a solid first half of the year, with Firefly’s debut following several notable IPOs, including those of CoreWeave (CRWV) and stablecoin issuer Circle Internet Group (CRCL).
-Aaron McDade
How Much Traders Expect UnitedHealth to Move After Earnings
3 hr 58 min ago
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) is scheduled to report second-quarter results ahead of the opening bell on Tuesday, with markets expecting the health insurance giant’s stock to make a substantial move over the rest of the week.
Based on recent options pricing, UnitedHealth shares are expected to rise or fall by more than 7% by the end of the week from their recent levels. The stock was little changed at around $281 in mid-afternoon trading Monday.
Shares sank more than 22% the day of UnitedHealth’s last report in April, when the insurer slashed its full-year profit projections. In the three quarters before that UnitedHealth stock declined 6% and 8% on the day of its fourth- and third-quarter reports, respectively, and rose 6.5% on the day of last year’s second-quarter report.
TradingView
The stock has lost about 45% of its value since the start of the year. It has been dragged lower by the disappointing first-quarter report, a sudden CEO departure in May, and reports that it is the subject of a Justice Department investigation into its billing practices, which the company confirmed last week.
Analysts have stayed bullish on UnitedHealth’s stock despite its troubles this year, with 12 of the 15 tracked by Visible Alpha still calling UnitedHealth’s stock a buy, along with two holds and one sell rating. The average price target is $379.40.
UnitedHealth is expected to report a 13% jump in revenue to $111.88 billion, while adjusted earnings per share are projected to drop to $4.64 from $6.80 in the year-ago quarter.
-Aaron McDade
Cheniere Energy Jumps US-EU Trade Agreement
5 hr 57 min ago
Shares of liquified natural gas provider Cheniere Energy (LNG) rose Monday, a day after President Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen struck a trade deal that will have the European Union purchase more LNG from American suppliers.
Trump explained that the 27 countries of the EU will buy $750 billion worth of LNG and other energy sources from the U.S. over a three-year period, in a move to allow Europe to replace Russian energy sources following the country’s invasion of Ukraine.
The energy pact was part of a larger trade agreement that puts 15% tariffs on exports from the EU into the U.S, and opens EU’s market to American exports with no tariffs. The bloc would also invest $600 billion dollars more than it’s currently spending in America, and buy a “vast amount” of military equipment from U.S. manufacturers.
Cheniere Energy shares were up 1.5% in early-afternoon trading, after rising nearly 5% in the opening minutes of Monday’s session.
-Bill McColl
Celcuity Stock Soars on Positive Breast Cancer Treatment Study
7 hr 16 min ago
Shares of Celcuity (CELC) tripled to an all-time high Monday after the biotech firm announced positive results in a late-stage study of its experimental treatment for adults with two kinds of breast cancer.
The company reported primary endpoints were reached in the Phase 3 trial of gedatolisib, combined with two other drugs, palbociclib and fulvestrant, which it calls the “gedatolisib triple.” It said the three together reduced the risk of disease progression or death by 76% compared to fulvestrant alone. A “gedatolisib double” combination of gedatolisib and fulvestrant cut risk of disease progression or death by 67% versus fulvestrant alone, also exceeding endpoints.
The patients tested suffered from “hormone receptor (HR)-positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-negative, PIK3CA wild-type, locally advanced or metastatic breast cancer, following progression on, or after, treatment with a CDK4/6 inhibitor and an aromatase inhibitor.”
Dr. Sara Hurvitz, co-principal investigator of the trial, said to her knowledge, “we have not seen Phase 3 results in patients with HR-positive, HER2-negative advanced breast cancer before where there was a quadrupling of the likelihood of survival without disease progression relative to the study control.”
Dr. Igor Gorbatchevsky, Chief Medical Officer at Celcuity, added that the results showed gedatolisib could be a “transformative new medicine” for the treatment of those breast cancers.
The company plans to submit a New Drug Application to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for gedatolisib in the fourth quarter.
Celcuity shares, which entered the day up 5% this year, were up 190% in recent trading at around $40, after jumping above $46 in the opening minutes of Monday’s session.
-Bill McColl
JPMorgan Analysts on Nike Stock: ‘Just Buy It’
8 hr 28 min ago
Nike (NKE) shares traded at their highest level in five months Monday after JPMorgan upgraded the stock on the athletic shoe and apparel maker’s turnaround strategy.
Playing on the company’s slogan “Just Do It,” the analysts wrote in a note to investors, “Just Buy It!,” boosting their rating to “overweight” from “neutral.” They also lifted the price target to $93 from $64. In addition, they increased the outlook for the company’s earnings per share in both fiscal years 2026 and 2027.
The analysts noted their optimism came after “recent fieldwork, management access, and 10-K review,” and pointed to Nike’s “5-pronged multi-year recovery path.” That plan included improving inventory alignment to sales growth, accelerating wholesale overbooks, and new performance products, especially with the soccer World Cup coming to the U.S. next year.
Nike shares, which entered Monday up less than 1% this year, were up 2.5% at around $78 in recent trading, after rising as high as $79.99 in the opening minutes of trading.
-Bill McColl
Questions Investors Want Answered in Big Tech Earnings
9 hr 30 min ago
Four of the world’s largest companies—Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Meta (META)—are set to report their results this week. AI will be the focus for many investors, who will be hoping for updates on companies’ investments in the era-defining technology and how they’re using it. But trade policy could also get some airtime, especially during Apple’s and Amazon’s calls on Thursday.
Microsoft and Meta kick things off with their reports and earnings calls after the closing bell on Wednesday. Alphabet (GOOGL) and Tesla (TSLA) have already turned in results, so after this week the only Magnificent 7 company left to report will be Nvidia (NVDA), in late August.
Are AI Investments Still Ramping Up?
Six months ago, one of the most pressing debates on Wall Street was whether U.S. tech companies were spending too much on artificial intelligence. That issue appears to be settled—or, at least, on the back burner for now.
Alphabet last week raised its full-year capital expenditures forecast to $85 billion, citing growing demand for cloud computing products and services; that was generally read as a good thing. Google Cloud grew by more than 30% from the prior year, putting the unit on track to book over $50 billion in revenue within the next year.
Cloud computing competitors Microsoft and Amazon could follow Alphabet’s lead. Both companies left their capex forecasts unchanged when they reported quarterly results three months ago, decisions that may have been influenced by the trade and economic uncertainty hanging over the market at the time. The companies could be feeling more confident about boosting AI spending now that some of the fog has been lifted by trade agreements.
Meta was the odd one out last quarter when it raised its capex outlook. It’s not out of the question that the social media giant will lift its forecast again; it did so in the first and second quarters last year.
Is AI Leading to Monetization and Efficiency Gains?
Investors will be looking for evidence that big investments in AI are paying off.
“AI is positively impacting every part of the business, driving strong momentum,” said Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai in the company’s second-quarter earnings release. Executives said on the company’s earnings call that Google is monetizing AI search results at about the same rate as it is traditional search, and that AI overviews are driving increased search volume.
In recent quarters, Meta has convinced Wall Street that AI is improving ad performance and user engagement. Investors are hoping this week’s results continue to demonstrate that Meta’s investments are bearing fruit.
Amazon could offer updates on how customers are engaging with Rufus, its AI shopping assistant, and Q, its work assistant. Microsoft is likely to elaborate on the uptake of its Copilot AI offering.
As for Apple, experts say, investors may still have to wait for the details they crave.
“We don’t expect (1) an update on Apple Intelligence timing (2026), (2) any material change in quarterly capex, (3) an update on Apple Intelligence approval in China, and/or (4) any new partnership announcements,” wrote Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring in an earnings preview last week. Management might, however, say product sales grew faster in Apple Intelligence-enabled regions than non-AI regions, he said.
How Are Big Tech Companies Handling Tariffs?
At least in the near term, Apple investors are likely more concerned with tariffs than most of its Magnificent Seven counterparts.
President Donald Trump in April exempted smartphones and other consumer electronics from his sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs, but the president has ordered his administration to consider invoking national security concerns to impose Section 232 duties on smartphones and semiconductors. Section 232 tariffs have held up better in court than Trump’s country-specific duties and could be harder for Apple to avoid.
Even with the smartphone exemption, Apple in May estimated tariffs would add $900 million to the company’s costs in the second quarter. Investors will watch for the actual impact and to hear how Apple is engaging with suppliers and the administration to fend off tariffs and mitigate their potential impact.
Trade policy will also be top of mind for Amazon investors. In the first quarter, Amazon saw some evidence buyers were stocking up to get ahead of tariffs, which could set the company up for a sequential slowdown in sales. Executives said merchants didn’t meaningfully increase prices in the first quarter, but noted that could change depending on where tariff rates end up.
-Colin Laidley
Major Index Futures Point to Higher Open
9 hr 53 min ago
Futures tied to the Dow Jones industrial Average were up 0.1%.
TradingView
S&P 500 futures rose 0.2%.
TradingView
Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.3%.
TradingView
