CLSA’s Vikash Kumar Jain said the tariff will obviously reduce optimism for exporters like electronic manufacturers, where investors were hoping of improved access to the US market by virtue of India’s tariffs being more favourable than other exporters.
“Indian refiners have gained from cheaper Russian crude oil, and these could be hit adversely from these comments. A wider reading of this statement as being less friendly towards India may make investor worry on less favourable regulations in sectors like pharmaceuticals and IT,” he said, adding that Trump’s comments alters the near-term narrative of India being a safe haven.
Also Read | Picture abhi baki hai: Why Sensex, Nifty dodged Trump’s 25% tariff bullet
Here’s a sectoral breakdown of Trump tariff impact from a stock market perspective:
Auto stocks: Mixed bag of pain
Automobile and auto component exporters are among the hardest hit, given their heavy reliance on US markets. Sona BLW Precision shares, with 30-35% revenue exposure to the US, fell over 3%. Bharat Forge shares fell over 2% as the company has a 40-45% US revenue share.
“With PV components already subject to 25% tariffs, Sona BLW Precision Forgings is not likely to be further impacted. However, truck/industrial components are currently at 10%, and so Bharat Forge may be negatively impacted,” Jefferies noted.
Sansera Engineering has emerged as the defensive play due to its overseas manufacturing footprint, while among OEMs, Eicher Motors shows minimal vulnerability with just 3-4% volume exposure to the US. Tata Motors dodged the tariff bullet entirely as “tariff concerns for Tata Motors due to JLR exports to the US have already alleviated with US-UK and US-EU trade deals at 10-15% tariffs.”
Shares of Balkrishna Industries, which derives 15% of tyre volumes from the US, fell 2.5%. Ramkrishna Forgings, which has a significant order book from North America, fell 2%. JK Tyres fell 2% as its Mexican subsidiary may get impacted. It exports significant volumes to the USA from Mexico, SBI Securities said.
Steel Strip Wheels, which derive 63% of total export volumes to the USA, fell 4%. Samvardhana Motherson was down 1% while Garware Hi Tech Films, which earns 45% of revenue from the US, fell 2.5%.
Capital goods stocks
The capital goods sector faces targeted hits with Cummins India showing 5-15% revenue exposure through sales to its parent company. The stock was down around 1%.
Thermax carries 5-10% exposure mainly on waste water chemicals, though Jefferies suggests “China tariffs higher, so might have limited impact.” KEI Industries sits in the relative safety zone with less than 5% export sales to the US.
Chemical stocks
The chemicals sector faces a “negative impact” according to Jefferies, with Navin Fluorine International taking the biggest hit at 24% revenue exposure, followed by PI Industries at 20% and SRF Limited at 6%. The analysis reveals that “agrochemicals are broadly outside the tariff ambit,” providing some sector relief, but Navin Fluorine’s refrigerator gas exports and SRF’s refrigerator gas and tech textile exports remain in the firing line. Both PI Industries and SRF were down around 2-3% each today.
CRDMO stocks
The Contract Research and Development Manufacturing Organizations (CRDMO) sector appears largely insulated. “For CRDMOs, we do not expect any meaningful impact as API cost as % of end market sales are just 1-5% of drug sales. Moreover, contracts are pass-through,” Jefferies explained, with Indian CRDMOs already signaling minimal material impact in earnings calls.
EMS stocks
Electronics manufacturing services show varied exposure levels. Dixon Technologies faces escalating US exposure from ~5% in FY25 to an estimated 10% in FY26, though the company “broadly expects that China 1+ strategy can place India in a beneficial spot” with its cost-plus assembly model. Dixon shares were trading 2% lower.
Syrma SGS Technology maintains 5-6% US exposure with EU as a bigger export market, while Kaynes Technology shows net US exposure of just 2-3% after accounting for its US subsidiary Digicom’s local manufacturing. Polycab India sits comfortably with a mere 1-2% US exposure, with management noting “India is in a beneficial position compared to China and Mexico which will have higher duties.”
Syrma SGS shares were down over 1%.
Metal stocks
The metals sector sits in regulatory uncertainty. “Steel and aluminum were excluded from the reciprocal tariff order announced by the US on April 2, but are subject to a 50% tariff under Section 232,” Jefferies noted. With Indian metal companies showing less than 5% US export exposure, the sector awaits clarity on inclusion in the 25% tariff framework.
Pharma stocks
Pharmaceuticals face the most complex tariff equation. While the “headline 25% tariffs is a negative for export companies,” Jefferies highlights a crucial exemption precedent: “Recent EU-US trade deal exempted some generic drugs from any tariffs even though branded pharma drugs were subjected to 15% tariffs.”
The stakes are enormous given “India accounts for ~60% of the oral drugs consumed in the US.” If exemptions don’t materialize, Jefferies estimates “a 2-8% EPS impact on FY26 EPS for Indian pharma companies,” with Biocon facing the highest impact, followed by Sun Pharmaceutical, Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories, Zydus Lifesciences, Gland Pharma, Lupin and Cipla, while Alkem Laboratories shows the least vulnerability.
Shares of IPCA Lab, Lupin, Granules, JB Chemicals, Zydus and Biocon were trading 1-2% lower. Others in the firing line include Natco Pharma, Dr Reddy’s, Aurobindo Pharma, Sun Pharma, Cipla, Glenmark Pharmaceuticals and Ajanta Pharma.
IT stocks
The IT sector escapes direct tariff impact but faces collateral damage. “Demand from Mfg/Logistics and Retail may remain subdued since tariff accords have not been reached with many countries yet,” Jefferies warned, though sectors like BFSI, Healthcare, Hi-tech, Utilities and Communications may see limited impact.
Mayank Jain from Share.Market reinforced this view: “IT majors with substantial US revenues may underperform, but the declines are likely to be less pronounced than those seen in manufacturing exporters.”
Mphasis stands out with the highest BFSI exposure, while iKure Techsoft/Sagility India show limited impact given healthcare focus. Among larger firms, Tech Mahindra and Wipro have slightly lower exposure to impacted verticals at 25% versus 30% for others.
Oil stocks
Refiners face a double whammy from the “additional penalty” for Russian energy purchases. “Reliance Industries, Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation and Indian Oil Corporation may need to diversify sourcing beyond Russia. The discount on such barrels is likely to narrow likely impacting refinery profitability,” Jefferies assessed.
HPCL, BPCL, IOC and RIL were trading around 1% lower.
Solar stocks
The solar sector faces direct assault with Waaree Energies showing maximum vulnerability as 59% of its 25GW order book comes from overseas, primarily the US, which “will be subject to tariffs, in addition to 14.5% customs duty.”
Waaree Energies shares were down around 5% and Premier Energies was down 3%.
Textile stocks
Textiles emerge as the sector facing the most brutal competitive repositioning. Companies like Welspun Living, Gokaldas Exports, Indo Count Industries, and Trident derive 40-70% revenue from the US and now face adverse positioning against competitors.
“With a 25%+ tariff, India could now be relatively disadvantaged vs. some of the competing countries” including China (30% tariff), Vietnam (20%), Bangladesh (36%), Indonesia (19%), and Pakistan for home textiles, Jefferies noted. The analysis warns of demand destruction as “exporters will have to bear a part of the cost and there could also be end-user demand destruction due to price hikes.”
Mayank Jain’s assessment was equally stark: “The textiles, gems, and jewellery sectors, all of which are highly dependent on US demand, are bracing for significantly negative effects in the near term.”
Welspun Living was down 5%, Gokaldas Exports 6%, Indo Count Industries 4% and Trident 2.5%.
Kitex Garments, which earns 70% of revenue from the US market, fell 4%. Shares of KPR Mill and Vardhman Textiles also fell around 3% each.
Other stocks
Other sectors impacted include gems and jewellery. Goldiam International shares, which derive 90% revenue from the USA, fell 3%. Granite-seller Pokarna was also down 5%.
Impact was also seen on shrimp stocks like Avanti Feeds, Apex Frozen Foods, and Waterbase Ltd, which fell up to 7%.
