Quick overview
Gold bulls finally caught a break after Friday’s disappointing Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data sent shockwaves through markets. The U.S. economy added just 73,000 jobs in July, falling well short of the 106,000 forecast, and marking a steep drop from June’s upwardly revised 14,000. While wages held steady with 0.3% m/m growth and unemployment remained unchanged at 4.2%, the miss sparked immediate Dollar weakness—and gold took full advantage.
XAU/USD surged above the $3,346 resistance zone, breaking out of a descending channel and climbing toward the $3,363 level. With the labor market showing cracks and Fed policymakers expressing caution, traders are beginning to price in a slower pace of tightening—or even cuts by year-end.
XAU/USD
Next Week’s Calendar: All Eyes on Services PMI, Fed Speak
The week ahead is packed with market-moving events that could extend—or challenge—gold’s rally:
Tuesday (Aug 5): ISM Services PMI (Forecast: 51.5), Trade Balance
Wednesday: Crude Oil Inventories, FOMC speeches by Daly, Collins, Cook
Thursday: Jobless Claims (Forecast: 221K), Productivity & Labor Costs
Friday: FOMC Member Musalem speaks
These events, especially the ISM Services PMI and jobless claims, will offer critical insight into consumer resilience and Fed outlook. A miss in services data or dovish Fed tone could push gold higher. On the other hand, stronger-than-expected data may trigger a corrective pullback.
Gold Price Technical Outlook: Key Levels to Watch
Gold’s bullish breakout above the 50-SMA ($3,342) is technically significant. Momentum indicators are strong—RSI currently sits at 65.69—while price targets are forming based on Fibonacci retracements and previous highs.
Upside levels to monitor:
$3,394 – Initial target and previous support turned resistance
$3,439 – Upper channel target
$3,472 – June high and next major resistance
Downside support if momentum fades:
$3,346 – Key horizontal breakout level
$3,310 – Near-term psychological support
$3,275 – Lower channel base and strong demand zone
If gold can hold above the $3,346–$3,342 zone, bulls remain in control. However, profit-taking ahead of data risks a short-term retest. RSI creeping near overbought levels also suggests some caution.
Summary:
Bullish scenario: Continued rally toward $3,394 and $3,472 if macro data weakens
Bearish scenario: Break below $3,342 reopens downside to $3,275
Bias: Bullish, contingent on holding above 50-SMA and data tone
Arslan Butt
Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)
Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics.
His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker.
His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.
