Gold futures hit a record high on Friday after U.S. authorities said tariffs should be imposed on some gold bars — and some strategists say there is more upside ahead for the metal. U.S. gold futures for December delivery touched on an all-time high of $3,534.10 on Friday morning, before climbing down to trade at around $3,495 by 10 a.m. ET. Spot gold , meanwhile, was little changed at around $3,400 per ounce. @GC.1 1D line Gold futures price It came after a “ruling” letter from the U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency (CBP) suggested cast gold bars from Switzerland should be subjected to new import tariffs on Swiss goods. The news was first reported by the Financial Times. Earlier this week , U.S. President Donald Trump’s 39% “reciprocal” tariffs began to apply to Swiss goods. However there has been some confusion on whether the “reciprocal” duties apply to gold bars. In the July 31 letter which was a response to a Swiss gold refinery’s request for clarification on tariffs, the CBP said one-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars should be categorized under a customs code that market watchers say will not exempt them from reciprocal tariffs. The CBP said in its ruling letter that the bars in question should not be classified as unwrought non-monetary gold bullion or dore — which is categorized with the Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS) code 7108.12.10. Instead, the agency said, the bars should be classified under the customs code 7108.13.5500. Switzerland, the world’s largest gold refiner, shipped 192.9 metric tons of gold to the U.S. in January. In a Friday note to clients, Michael Hsueh, a research analyst at Deutsche Bank, said only gold fitting the 7108.12.10 classification was exempt from U.S. tariffs. He said uncertainty on gold tariffs “re-emerged” on the back of the FT publicizing the CBP’s ruling, labeling the gold futures spike “a reprise of the importing rush” that took hold in late 2024 and earlier this year. Demand for gold, widely seen as a safe haven asset in times of market turbulence, has risen this year, sending prices soaring . The CBP’s letter also explained that in line with new U.S. Executive Orders, all imported merchandise must now be reported to customs with details of either the reciprocal tariff that applies, or details of provisions that exempt the goods from reciprocal tariffs. The duty rate for gold varies based on its specific characteristics and country of origin, a spokesperson for the U.S. International Trade Commission said Friday. In its ruling letter, the CBP told the Swiss refiner that its one-kilogram and 100-ounce bars failed to qualify in the 7108.12.10 category, as they had been stamped and needled or lasered with identifying information. They were therefore too processed to qualify as unwrought. Deutsche Bank’s Hsueh said in his note that while it was too early to make any final judgements on the CBP’s letter, “on the face of it the CBP ruling is applicable to [gold imported from] all countries.” However, Hsueh suggested there could be ways for gold exporters to skirt around U.S. tariffs. “The failure of tariff exemption is based on the nature of the manufactured gold bar and its HTS classification, rather than being dependent on the country of origin,” he explained, referring to the International Trade Commission’s Harmonized Tariff Schedule — the database that holds the customs codes for imported goods. “There is nothing in the CBP ruling which precludes the gold refiner from adjusting its operations to produce gold in a format which fits HTS code 7108.12.10, thereby qualifying for tariff exemption. This could take the form of a cast bar which is only minimally processed after the fact, or granules which are likely to also qualify as minimally processed.” Jitters ahead The new ruling on tariffs surprised the gold market, according to Joni Teves, strategist at Swiss investment bank UBS. “This creates an issue for the global gold market which uses Comex gold futures to hedge positions, with the assumption that it can easily import metal into Comex warehouses in the US to physically settle contracts if needed,” she said in a Friday note. “The tariff adds costs to this process, and with the bulk of refining capacity sitting in Switzerland which faces 39% US tariffs, these costs would be quite high.” Teves argued that until there is clarity on gold tariffs, markets were likely to “remain jittery.” “Historically, the vast majority of Swiss gold exports to the US have fallen under the 7108.12 (unwrought) category, which is exempted from tariffs,” she said. “On average, this tariff-exempt category accounted for ~78% of Swiss gold flows to the US.” Like Hseuh, UBS’ Teves suggested that the gold industry may react by changing delivery standards — this could include allowing settlement in alternative locations such as London. “In the long run, the existence of US tariffs on deliverable gold products raises the question on the role of futures trading in the US as a means to hedge and whether other centres eventually step up as alternatives,” Teves added. “There is still a lot of uncertainty around all this and until there is clarity, we expect the gold market and precious metals markets more generally to remain very nervous.” Philippe Gijsels, chief strategy officer at BNP Paribas Fortis, told CNBC on Friday that he was more bullish than ever on gold. His target price for gold is $4,000 per ounce, but he believes that the metal could even exceed this price point. “The news on the tariffs on gold risks creating a market dislocation like copper,” Gijsels said. “So volatility will increase, but we live more than ever in an uncertain world. In a world where the independence of the Fed lies in the balance and there are more questions about the long term sustainability of [government] debt, inflation will rise and we have to invest in real assets.” “I think [gold] could go still higher,” Gijsels added. “But indeed, it could be a rocky path.” Deutsche Bank’s Hseuh said in his note on Friday that much of the trajectory for gold depends on the intentions of the U.S. administration, which he argued remains “unclear.” “If their intentions are to stimulate investment in and expand domestic gold refining capacity, then they may well obstruct the ability of foreign gold refiners to meet the standards required for tariff exemption,” he said. “Going further, they could even remove the tariff exemption for HTS code 7108.12.10, though this seems unlikely. Either of these actions would risk creating a bifurcated gold market whereby metal circulating amongst buyers and sellers in the US becomes divorced from the volume of metal similarly circulating outside the US.”
