At the same time, heightened focus on President Trump’s meeting with Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy underscores how geopolitics may shape risk appetite, particularly for energy and defense stocks.
Adding another layer of uncertainty, earnings from Walmart, Target, and Home Depot are expected to provide a crucial read on U.S. consumer strength, which remains the backbone of the economy.
The combination of monetary policy signals, geopolitical shifts, and consumer data means futures may look calm now, but volatility could accelerate quickly as the week unfolds.
Where do Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq futures stand today?
U.S. stock market futures are signaling a subdued open this Monday, August 18, 2025, with all three major benchmarks edging lower. As of 7:30 a.m. ET:
Dow Jones futures slipped about 25 points (-0.05%) to 44,986. S&P 500 futures eased 2–7 points (-0.03% to -0.11%), hovering near 6,465. Nasdaq-100 futures lost between 12 and 37 points (-0.05% to -0.16%), trading around 23,770. The moves aren’t dramatic, but they reflect a market caught in a holding pattern ahead of two major catalysts: this week’s Federal Reserve symposium in Jackson Hole and a string of retail earnings reports from giants like Walmart, Home Depot, and Target.
Why are futures under pressure this morning?
Three themes dominate early trading: monetary policy, consumer strength, and geopolitics. Federal Reserve uncertainty – Markets still expect Fed Chair Jerome Powell to outline the path of rate cuts at Jackson Hole later this week. CME FedWatch data shows a 65% probability of a 25-basis-point cut in September, but expectations for multiple cuts into 2026 have cooled. Traders want clarity: if Powell signals patience, equity valuations may look stretched at current levels. Retail earnings in focus – Investors will get a clearer sense of the American consumer’s resilience when Walmart (WMT), Home Depot (HD), and Target (TGT) report this week. With household debt at a record $17.6 trillion in Q2 (NY Fed, Aug. 2025) and credit card delinquencies ticking higher, the market wants evidence that shoppers are still spending. Geopolitical headlines – Optimism from the Trump–Putin summit last week gave futures a brief lift, but uncertainty lingers. Ukraine peace talks remain fragile, and Trump is scheduled to meet President Zelenskyy later this week. Any hint of progress or breakdown could swing risk sentiment quickly.
Which stocks are making the biggest moves pre-market?
The broader futures picture hides sharp moves in individual names: Dayforce (DAY) surged 27% after confirming an acquisition deal, making it the morning’s standout gainer. UnitedHealth (UNH) jumped 3% after Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a 5 million share stake worth $1.6 billion. This aligns with Buffett’s history of betting on healthcare resilience in uncertain times. Soho House (SHCO) spiked 16% following news of a $2.7 billion privatization offer, underscoring renewed private equity appetite for hospitality assets. Novo Nordisk (NVO) gained 2.3% after the FDA approved its obesity drug Wegovy for a new liver disease treatment — a move analysts at Jefferies say could expand its U.S. patient base by 15% over the next five years. Solar stocks like First Solar (FSLR), Nextracker (NXT), and Sunrun (RUN) extended last week’s rally, buoyed by fresh tax credit guidance from the Treasury Department. On the downside: BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR) fell 6.6%, while Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL) dropped 4%, both victims of profit-taking after recent rallies.
Federal Reserve looms large ahead of Jackson Hole
The most pressing question for Wall Street this week is what the Federal Reserve will signal at its annual Jackson Hole symposium, scheduled for August 21–23.
Futures markets are currently pricing in an 85% probability of a 25-basis-point cut in September, based on CME’s FedWatch tool. That optimism stems from cooling inflation data — the July CPI rose just 2.6% year-over-year, its slowest pace since March 2021 — and signs of weakening consumer demand in discretionary sectors.
But the stakes are higher than in past years. “If Powell signals hesitation, risk assets could reprice sharply,” said Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco, in a note to clients on Sunday. Traders vividly remember last year’s Jackson Hole, when Powell’s hawkish tone erased nearly $1.5 trillion in equity value within two trading sessions.
Oil (WTI crude): Edged higher near $83 per barrel. Gold: Steady, reflecting safe-haven demand ahead of Fed signals. Treasury yields: Slightly lower, pricing in September rate cut expectations.
Geopolitics: Ukraine talks set tone for risk appetite
Beyond central banks, politics is keeping futures traders alert. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy are scheduled for high-level talks in Washington today, the first such meeting since renewed fighting near Kharkiv in late July.
Markets tend to react less to battlefield news than to the prospect of U.S. defense spending, energy sanctions, and European market stability. Oil futures, for example, edged higher overnight, with WTI crude at $83.20 per barrel, as traders priced in potential disruptions to Eastern European supply routes.
For equity investors, the risk is secondary but real: any sign of escalation could pressure already fragile global trade flows and push investors toward safe-haven assets like Treasurys and gold.
Walmart (WMT) – Investors eye earnings results and consumer spending signals. Home Depot (HD) – Quarterly report expected to highlight housing and retail demand. Target (TGT) – Watched for discretionary spending weakness. Tesla (TSLA) – Active on tech and EV momentum. Micron (MU) – In focus for chip sector moves. Apple (AAPL) – Traders watching ahead of fall product cycle. AppLovin (APP) – On radar after recent breakout activity.
Corporate earnings: Retailers under the microscope
The other big story this week is retail earnings. Heavyweights Walmart, Home Depot, Target, and Lowe’s are all set to report quarterly results.
These earnings will reveal more than corporate health — they’ll offer a direct read on U.S. consumer spending, which accounts for nearly 70% of GDP. Analysts expect mixed results. According to Refinitiv data, Walmart is projected to post a 4.5% increase in revenue on continued grocery strength, while discretionary-heavy Target may show a 2.1% sales decline, reflecting tighter household budgets.
Retail stocks have quietly outperformed this summer. The S&P Retail ETF (XRT) is up 12% year-to-date, versus an 8% gain for the broader S&P 500. But analysts warn that margin pressures could quickly change sentiment if earnings disappoint.
What this means for investors today
The takeaway for traders and long-term investors alike: today’s modest uptick in futures masks a week of potentially market-shifting events. If Powell leans dovish, equities could extend their rally toward fresh highs, with rate-sensitive sectors like tech and housing leading gains. If Ukraine tensions worsen, energy and defense could see a bid, while broader risk assets might lag. If retail earnings surprise negatively, recession fears could creep back into pricing models, especially for consumer discretionary and financial stocks exposed to household credit. In other words, this is not a week to trade on autopilot. Volatility could surge midweek as headlines break from both Wyoming and Washington.
As one veteran trader told this morning: “Futures are quiet now, but that’s the eye of the storm. By Thursday, nobody will be talking about today’s open — they’ll be talking about Powell’s tone and whether the consumer is still spending.”
FAQs:
Q1: What is driving US stock market futures today?
US stock market futures today are moving on Fed rate cut bets, Ukraine talks, and key retail earnings.
Q2: Why are investors watching the Fed this week?
Investors expect signals on possible rate cuts at the Jackson Hole meeting.
