Trump tariffs: Despite the Trump-Putin meeting and the Trump-Zelensky meeting, uncertainty over the Russia-Ukraine war persists, and disputes over trade tariffs are still ongoing. A strategic convergence is reshaping the world’s economic architecture in the corridors of power from Beijing to Moscow to New Delhi. What appears as diplomatic pleasantries masks one of our time’s most consequential trade realignments.
Amid news of Russian President Vladimir Putin visiting India by the end of 2025, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is poised to set foot in China for the SCO Summit, his first visit in seven long years. This isn’t routine diplomacy. It’s the stealthy forging of a strategic triad—Dragon, Bear, and Tiger—assembling beneath the radars.
According to experts, Trump’s tariffs are expected to do little in the current global merchandise trade, as we are not living in a unipolar economy. After the inception of the WTO, around three and a half decades ago, the global economy has turned multipolar. They said that countries are ready to leave their political egos and move with the business flow in the current economic setup. However, they also maintained that Trump’s tariff is expected to force a realignment in the geopolitical setup, and the recent trinity in the India-China-Russia should be seen from this angle. They said overdependence on the US dollar in the global economy is also a reason for the rising bonhomie in these three nations.
Speaking on the rising bonhomie in Russia-India-China, Manish Bhandari, CIIA & Founder of Vallum Capital, said, “Each nation brings unique strengths to this trinity: China’s manufacturing dominance, Russia’s energy supremacy, and India’s service economy and huge untapped markets. This convergence represents more than mere trade statistics. It embodies a fundamental shift from a unipolar to a multipolar world order, where traditional Western-controlled trade routes face unprecedented competition from Eurasian alternatives. The consequence of shifting trade to respective home currency will be momentous on the trade and financial markets, thereby reducing reliance on the US dollar by a major fold.”
Top 5 reasons for this trinity
1] Strength in unity: Speaking on the rising India-China-Russia trinity, Manish Bhandari said, “In a world of 8.2 billion people and $173 trillion in economic firepower, three ancient titans have risen to dominate the global stage. Chin-India-Russia. Together, they command $53.9 trillion in GDP (PPP)—nearly one-third of the planet’s economic output. Picture three mighty rivers of power and ambition, merging into a single, unstoppable force.” He said that Trump’s tariff is trying to alienate countries like India, China and Russia from the global merchandise. However, the White House move seems to have worked as a binding force for these three nations.
2] Dominance in export: “India-China-Russia together exports $5.09 trillion—almost one-fifth of global merchandise exports—flowing through continents, fueling global trade, connecting billions through innovation, technology, and industry. With $4.7 trillion in foreign reserves—38% of the world’s safety net—they’ve built an economic fortress, unshakable even in the fiercest storms. And with 3.1 billion citizens, representing 37.8% of the total population, they form the largest, hungriest consumer market in human history,” said Manish Bhandari.
3] Over dependence on the US dollar: “In the current business scenario, there is over dependence on the US dollar and Trump’s tariff is aimed at maintaining the status quo in the global merchandise. The US administration is trying to reprimand every country that has directly or indirectly supported the de-dollarisation drive by Russia and China. After the US and European countries’ sanctions on Russia, India and China bought Russian crude in local currency, enabling them to accumulate more dollars in their reserves. This is expected to help them in the currency war amid escalating trade war tension,” said Sandeep Pandey, Co-founder of Basav Capital.
4] Hit on US dominance in defence deals: Sandeep Pandey of Basav Capital said that Trump’s tariff aims to maintain its Dominance in the global defence deals. The US government is not just asking its trade partners to pay higher tariffs for their US exports; they are asking them to execute defence deals either with the US or with the European countries that belong to NATO. This is indirectly aimed at alienating Russia, China and to some extent India from the global defence market.
“India-China-Russia is not just growing. They’re flexing. $549 billion in military spending — 20.2% of the world’s defence budget. 35% of global energy consumption— powering their rise and lighting the way for others. This isn’t data. It’s destiny: the rise of three civilisations, echoing through markets, mega cities, and minds—the new heartbeat of the global economy,” said Manish Bhandari of Vallum Capital.
5] Renaissance of partnership in global order: “Looking at the USP (Unique Selling Proposition) of India-China-Russia, Russia can provide cheaper oil and energy, China is a manufacturing hub, and India is a service hub. So, India can easily combine with Russia and China. As India already has a strong bond with Russia, Trump’s tariffs have made an environment where both New Delhi and Beijing are looking at each other to find an avenue for the revenue to pare the export business they would be losing due to Trump’s tariffs,” said SEBI-registered Avinash Gorakshkar.
Manish Bhandari believes India will be a dominating partner in this trinity, “The convergence of China, Russia, and India represents more than an economic alliance—it embodies the emergence of a new world order where Eurasian powers shape global trade flows. Russia will supply cheap energy and allied resources to its economic partners, and China will enhance the game by investing in Indian entities, addressing new domestic and global markets. India, which remained out of the global export ecosystem, is set to rejoin it. The narrative of the future is going to be India+2 rather than China+1. Growing up, I always enjoyed the multi-starred movies. It’s time to watch another one.”
On how this trinity can help New Delhi to kill multiple sparrows with a single arrow, Gaurav Goel, Founder & Director at Fynocrat Technologies, said, “The trinity may help India to bargain with Beijing on its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). And this is the right time, as rising tariffs from the United States under President Trump and new trade barriers in Europe are squeezing China’s exports. Many companies are also shifting supply chains to India, Vietnam and other countries, weakening China’s traditional manufacturing advantage.”
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