More Americans are staying put in their jobs rather than jumping ship as the labor market cools.
So concludes a new analysis from the Bank of America Institute, which drew on the deposit data from millions of its customers to track job changes and the median pay bump people get when they switch employers.
The analysis shows that while the job change rate — defined in this case as the total percentage of Bank of America customers who have changed employers — has edged up this year, Americans are much less to likely switch jobs than during the “Great Resignation.” That was the period during the pandemic when a massive wave of workers quit their jobs, motivated by better work opportunities and work-life balance. Over 20 million people quit their jobs in the second half of 2021, according to Labor Department data.
The bank’s data shows that the percentage of its customers leaving their jobs has largely trended downwards, from 26% since the 2022 peak, and is now just slightly above the the job change rate in 2019. The upshot: As employers have pulled back in hiring, workers are hunkering down in their current jobs.
“It’s possible that, again, tariffs and just general business uncertainty is playing a role in squeezing out some of the availability for people to switch jobs, which is why that rate is declining,” said Taylor Bowley, an economist at Bank of America Institute and lead author of the report.
The labor market slowed sharply in recent months. Accounting for government data revisions, the average monthly payroll gain from May to July was only 35,000, down from average of 123,000 from January to April. The Labor Department will release the next jobs report on September 5.
“People are not leaving their jobs right now because they’re nervous about the future of the labor market,” said Allison Shrivastava, an economist at Indeed “It’s a pretty stagnant labor market,” she added.
Lower pay hikes from switching
As job hopping has waned, so too have the pay hike workers tend to get when changing jobs. The median raise for workers who switched employers was 7% in July, down from 10% in 2019 and 20% in 2022, according to the Bank of America Institute.
ZipRecruiter labor economist Nicole Bachaud, citing data from the company’s New Hires Survey, told CBS MoneyWatch in an email that less than half of new hires (42%) in the second quarter negotiated their starting salary. Among those who did seek to negotiate, only 48% received higher pay.
Federal Reserve data shows that for the first time since 2010, wage growth for job hoppers equaled that of job stayers in May and into July, another indication that the labor marketing is cooling.
The Bank of America analysis notes the diminishing payoff from switching jobs stems in part from the shifting power dynamic between employees and employers. Workers wielded more leverage during the pandemic, when labor supply disruptions created heightened demand for workers. However, that power is slowly shifting back toward employers as job opportunities dry up.
“This trend confirms that the labor market is no longer as tight,” Bowley writes in the report.
Uncertainty surrounding tariffs has also led employers to hold off on making major businesses investments, leading some to pause hiring altogether.
“This deceleration for both people changing jobs and then the pay rises they get when they do, could have dampening effects on consumer spending growth going forward,” said Bowley.
