Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on September 03, 2025 in New York City.
Spencer Platt | Getty Images
S&P 500 futures were little changed on Thursday as weak private payrolls data raised the stakes for Friday’s official jobs report. A big drop Salesforce weighed on Dow futures sentiment.
Futures tied to the broad market index and Nasdaq-100 futures were up 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures traded below the flatline, weighed down by a 5% fall in Salesforce shares on the heels of the software company posting a disappointing revenue outlook.
The ADP private payrolls report showed an increase of 54,000 in August. Economists polled by Dow Jones had expected private employers to add 75,000 jobs. The figure is also less than the revised 106,000 in July.
The reaction was limited as investors reasoned that the recent ADP data was weak enough for the Federal Reserve to justify a September rate cut, but not soft enough to herald a recession. Traders increased their bets that the central bank would cut on Sept. 17, with fed funds futures trading following ADP’s report now indicating a 97.4% chance of a rate cut, per CME Group’s Fedwatch tool. That’s up from 96.6% a day ago.
Meanwhile, jobless claims for the week ended Aug. 30 increased to 237,000. That number came in above estimates and marked an 8,000 gain from the prior week, providing more evidence of slowing in the labor market.
Those reports come ahead of Friday’s big jobs report, which is expected to post a 75,000 nonfarm payrolls gain for last month, according to economists polled by Dow Jones.
Wall Street is coming off a mixed session. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite posted solid gains thanks to tech. On the other hand, the blue-chip Dow, known for its greater exposure to the real economy, dipped 0.05%.
The bifurcated performance follows strong gains for Alphabet and Apple shares, which bolstered the tech sector, after the Google parent avoided a breakup in an antitrust case that had weighed on the stocks. However, any gains in the equity market were curbed by further signs of weakness in the labor market. On Wednesday, job openings data revealed that listings fell to levels rarely seen since the height of the pandemic.
“I do expect those pressures to gain momentum over the end of this year, but I doubt we have a meaningful problem for the market rally until after the holidays,” Lauren Goodwin, chief market strategist at New York Life Investments, told CNBC’s “Closing Bell” on Wednesday.
“The reason is that I think there’s still time for the price pressures — for example, ‘no hire, no fire’ economy — to really weigh on what has otherwise been a fairly constructive picture,” Goodwin added.
Traders are also turning their eyes to Washington for the latest on trade, after President Donald Trump asked the Supreme Court to quickly rule on an appeal that would overturn lower court decisions that deemed most tariffs illegal.
Those on Wall Street will additionally be eyeing the release of August’s ISM non-manufacturing PMI reading, due out at 10 a.m. ET. Economists are expecting a reading of 50.8, up from 50.1 in the prior period.
