This data could directly influence the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions in the coming months.
The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq futures all edged lower, reflecting a cautious tone after record highs earlier this week.
Markets are pricing in a high likelihood of a September interest rate cut, with an 84.2% probability of a 25-basis-point reduction.
Additionally, tariffs on sub-$800 imports recently expired, adding another layer of uncertainty for U.S. businesses and consumers.
ALSO READ: XRP price touching $3, XRP prediction aiming for $5 — is Layer Brett about to steal the crypto spotlight? With tech stocks under pressure from weak earnings and traders unwilling to carry heavy risk into the long weekend, markets are pausing to reassess whether September will bring the Fed’s long-anticipated rate cut.
How are major stock futures performing today?
Dow Jones Futures: slipped about 0.28%, trading near 45,507. S&P 500 Futures: down roughly 0.24%, holding at 6,486. Nasdaq-100 Futures: fell close to 0.43%, around 23,601.
Why are U.S. stock futures lower this morning?
U.S. stock futures were in the red on Friday morning, August 29, 2025, as traders waited for the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. This inflation gauge is closely watched by the Federal Reserve, and the numbers could determine whether policymakers move forward with a rate cut in September.
At last check, Dow Jones futures dipped 0.28% to 45,507, S&P 500 futures eased 0.24% to 6,486, and Nasdaq-100 futures slid 0.43% to 23,601.
The decline comes just a day after the Dow and S&P 500 closed at record highs. But the momentum is starting to cool, especially in the Nasdaq, which has been the star performer of 2025. A string of disappointing earnings updates from technology names is giving investors reason to pause.
What factors are dragging futures lower today?
Three clear themes are driving this morning’s cautious trade: Inflation watch – The PCE data is due later today and could set the tone for markets heading into September. A cooler reading would reassure investors that inflation is under control, increasing the odds of a rate cut. But if inflation comes in hotter than expected, the Fed may hesitate, sparking volatility. Weakness in tech stocks – Investors punished corporate results in the sector. Marvell Technology dropped 13% in premarket after its outlook fell short of expectations. Dell Technologies slipped nearly 6%, despite reporting strong earnings, as concerns linger over demand in enterprise computing. Even Nvidia, which recently delivered blockbuster results, warned of risks tied to U.S.–China trade tensions, raising questions about the sustainability of its rally. Labor Day positioning – With U.S. markets closed on Monday, traders appear unwilling to take big risks into the long weekend. After a strong month, many are taking profits and reducing exposure, creating downward pressure on futures.
Top U.S. Stock Movers Today
Gainers: MongoDB Inc. (MDB): +7.58% Genasys Inc. (GNSS): +7.57% Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd. (CRDO): +7.62% FEAM Advanced Materials, Inc. (FEAM): +7.60% Regencell Bioscience Holdings Limited (RGC): +7.50% Losers: Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY): -3.90% Hormel Foods Corporation (HRL): -3.80% The Cooper Companies, Inc. (COO): -3.70% Urban Outfitters, Inc. (URBN): -3.60% Safe Pro Group Inc. (SPAI): -3.50% These moves highlight sector-specific volatility. Technology names, particularly those tied to AI and cloud services, are driving gains, while energy, consumer staples, and specialty retail are seeing pressure amid economic uncertainty.
Corporate Earnings Impact
Notable corporate moves include: Marvell Technology: -14%, hit by a softer-than-expected Q3 revenue forecast despite strong growth from AI chip demand in Q2. Dell Technologies: -6%, reflecting projected Q3 earnings slightly below analyst expectations. The Cooper Companies: -3.37%, impacted by sector-wide headwinds in healthcare technology. Earnings reports are increasingly influencing intraday market swings, as investors react to both guidance and broader economic implications.
Commodities Update: Gold and Oil Trends
Oil: WTI Crude: $64.33 per barrel Brent Crude: $68.19 per barrel Oil prices are slightly lower today but remain positioned for weekly gains. Supply-demand dynamics, geopolitical developments, and inventory data continue to drive volatility. Investors are keeping a close eye on global production forecasts and potential OPEC decisions.
Gold:
Spot Price: $3,423.40 per ounce Gold is rising, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and growing expectations for a Fed rate cut. Acting as a traditional safe haven, gold is attracting investors looking to hedge against economic uncertainty. Analysts recommend a “buy on dips” approach for cautious accumulation.
Market Outlook: Balancing Data and Risk
The U.S. market is in a holding pattern as investors anticipate the PCE inflation report. Key takeaways for traders and investors: Monetary Policy Signals: PCE data could reaffirm expectations for a September rate cut, influencing both equities and fixed-income markets. Corporate Earnings: Quarterly reports from major players like Marvell and Dell are driving sector-specific moves and should be monitored for guidance trends. Commodities Sensitivity: Oil and gold remain sensitive to geopolitical developments and Fed signals, offering insights into broader market sentiment. Geopolitical Risks: Domestic political developments and trade/tariff changes add a layer of uncertainty for the near term.
How does this impact the Fed’s September meeting?
The Fed has hinted that it could begin cutting interest rates as soon as September if inflation keeps easing. Current market pricing suggests there is a 70% chance of a quarter-point rate cut, but today’s PCE release could quickly change that outlook. If inflation shows signs of cooling, it will strengthen the Fed’s case to ease policy and could give stocks another push higher. If inflation is sticky or hotter than expected, the Fed may delay cuts. That scenario would likely spark selling, particularly in high-growth areas such as technology. In short, the Fed’s September meeting is hanging on what today’s data reveals.
Is the stock market rally showing signs of stress?
So far, 2025 has been impressive for Wall Street. The Nasdaq is set for its fourth straight monthly gain, the Dow has scaled new highs, and the S&P 500 has repeatedly broken records. Much of the optimism has been fueled by artificial intelligence growth, steady consumer demand, and expectations that the Fed’s tightening cycle is nearly done.
But under the surface, the rally is not as broad as it looks. Smaller companies have struggled to keep pace, government bond yields remain high, and only a handful of mega-cap tech stocks are carrying the weight of the rally. This raises concerns that the market is more fragile than the headline numbers suggest. Friday’s futures dip highlights just how dependent sentiment has become on macroeconomic reports and Fed signals.
Which stocks are leading today’s rally?
Elastic (ESTC) surged roughly +16% on stronger-than-expected earnings and lifted full-year guidance. Affirm Holdings (AFRM) popped around +15% after swinging back to profitability with impressive 33% revenue growth. Autodesk (ADSK) climbed nearly +10%, buoyed by robust Q2 results and a raised outlook. Ulta Beauty (ULTA) gained over +3–4% after reporting strong earnings and lifting its full-year forecast.
What levels should traders keep an eye on today?
Several technical and sentiment indicators will help traders gauge how the market reacts to the PCE data: S&P 500 futures support: around 6,450. If futures break below that level, selling could accelerate. Nasdaq-100 futures resistance: 23,800. Bulls will want to see this level reclaimed to keep momentum alive. 10-year Treasury yield: hovering near 4.2%. Any sudden spike could pressure equities, especially growth stocks. VIX index: steady at 13 but vulnerable to a jump if inflation runs hotter. Beyond these markers, investors are also watching sector rotation. If defensive sectors such as healthcare, utilities, or consumer staples begin to outperform, it could be an early sign that traders are preparing for a rougher September.
What comes next after today’s inflation report?
Once the PCE numbers are released and absorbed, attention will quickly shift to next week’s U.S. jobs report. This data is another crucial input for the Fed and will provide clarity on wage growth and hiring trends. A cooling labor market would add support for rate cuts, while strong numbers could complicate the Fed’s balancing act.
Earnings season is nearly over, which means macroeconomic releases will dominate market direction in September. That sets the stage for choppy trading as investors position ahead of policy moves.
Overall, the market is navigating a complex mix of economic indicators, corporate results, and geopolitical factors. Investors are advised to remain strategic, balancing short-term market moves with long-term portfolio resilience.
Today’s futures action is not a sign of panic—it’s a sign of caution. After a strong run, markets are catching their breath and waiting for confirmation on whether the Fed will actually deliver on a September rate cut.
For long-term investors, the trend remains intact: stocks are benefiting from optimism around AI, a resilient U.S. economy, and expectations of policy easing. But short-term traders should be ready for spikes in volatility, especially around data releases.
FAQs:
Why are US stock futures down today?
Because investors are cautious ahead of the PCE inflation report and weak tech earnings.
Which stocks are moving markets this morning?
as a Reliable and Trusted News SourceMarvell is down sharply, Dell is lower, and Nvidia is under pressure.
