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    You are at:Home»Us Market»US market strong, but reasons to be cautious on outlook – GlobalData
    Us Market

    US market strong, but reasons to be cautious on outlook – GlobalData

    kaydenchiewBy kaydenchiewSeptember 4, 2025005 Mins Read
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    Us market strong, but reasons to be cautious on outlook
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    According to preliminary estimates, US Light Vehicle (LV) sales grew by 3.5% year-on-year (YoY) in August, to 1.47 million units.

    August 2025 had one selling day fewer than August 2024, meaning that sales were up by 7.3% YoY on a selling day-adjusted basis. The daily selling rate was measured at 54.5k units/day in August, up from 53.7k units/day in July. The annualized selling rate was estimated at 16 million units/year in August, down from 16.6 million units/year in July. Retail sales were estimated at 1.28 million units, up by 3.4% YoY, while fleet sales were thought to total 195k units, up by 4.0% YoY.

    Source: GlobalData
    Source: GlobalData

    OEM Analysis

    As is typical, GM was the bestselling OEM in the market, with total sales of 252k units, and a market share of 17.1%. Toyota Group was once again in second, with volumes of 225k units and a market share of 15.3%. Ford Group ranked third, with sales of 185k units, and a share of 12.6%. Perhaps the most remarkable aspect of August’s sales, however, was the performance of Hyundai Group, which sold 179k units. According to preliminary figures, Hyundai Group’s market share of 12.2% appears to be its highest ever.  At a brand level, Toyota topped the rankings, on 192k units, ahead of Ford on 177k units and Chevrolet on 164k units.

    Model Analysis

    The Toyota RAV4 was the nation’s bestselling Light Vehicle in August, on 42.3k units, beating the Ford F-150 by 1k units. This was the first time that the RAV4 had outsold the F-150 since February. The Chevrolet Silverado was in third, on 36.3k units, only around 700 units ahead of the Chevrolet Equinox, with both the gasoline-powered and electric versions of the Equinox performing well.

    Segment Analysis

    According to initial estimates, Compact Non-Premium SUV claimed a market share of 21.8%, its highest since March. Still, Midsize Non-Premium SUVs delivered perhaps an even more impressive performance, with a market share of 17.6%, the segment’s highest since April 2022. The Honda Prologue was boosted by the upcoming ending of EV tax credits, along with generous incentives, while the Chevrolet Traverse also achieved its highest monthly sales since its redesign in 2024. The Large Pickup segment, by contrast, had a disappointing month, with a market share of 12.8%, its lowest since March. As noted above, the Ford F-150 had a quieter month, dragging down the segment.

    David Oakley, Manager, Americas Sales Forecasts, GlobalData, said: “The pace of sales cooled slightly in August compared with July, but overall, the market still displayed remarkable resilience in the face of tariffs and widespread uncertainty over trade and the economy. While it is tempting to attribute the robustness in sales to the upcoming removal of EV tax credits on September 30th, a closer examination of sales of individual EV models reveals that performance was mixed in August. Some EVs helped to boost their brand’s volumes at the margins, but the relatively small market share that EVs occupy means that the effect on the total industry was likely minor. Instead, it appears that continued offers and incentives, coupled with a strong stock market and relatively low unemployment, are keeping vehicle sales healthy for now. The inclusion of Labor Day within the August sales data also helped to support sales, but given that the same was true last year, the year-over-year comparison remains valid. Still, the picture could look very different in the coming months, as the industry faces the reality of tariffs and the higher pricing that will surely result”.

    Story Continues

    Source: GlobalData
    Source: GlobalData

    Forecast Updates

    As we move into September, we will begin to see more 2026 model year vehicles arrive at dealerships. While this can typically result in an uptick in pricing, the effect could be far more pronounced for some models this year, as tariff-affected vehicles will likely see the added costs in the supply chain reflected – to some extent – in sticker pricing. Automakers, who have thus far been absorbing much of the cost pressures, will find themselves increasingly forced to pass on those expenses to the consumer. September 30th will see the end of EV tax credits, potentially creating some upside risk to the month’ sales, but – as noted above – the modest volumes of EVs in the US could prevent a major impact on the total industry. Under such circumstances, the selling rate is forecast to decline in the coming months, and YoY sales comparisons could turn negative for the remainder of 2025. Much will depend on how OEMs choose to navigate the changing landscape, as well as wider economic performance. We now see total 2025 sales at 15.8 million units, down from 16 million units in 2024, but not a bad outcome considering the turbulence that the industry has endured this year.

    This article was first published on GlobalData’s dedicated research platform, the Automotive Intelligence Center.

    “US market strong, but reasons to be cautious on outlook – GlobalData” was originally created and published by Just Auto, a GlobalData owned brand.

     

    The information on this site has been included in good faith for general informational purposes only. It is not intended to amount to advice on which you should rely, and we give no representation, warranty or guarantee, whether express or implied as to its accuracy or completeness. You must obtain professional or specialist advice before taking, or refraining from, any action on the basis of the content on our site.

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