Last month, President Donald Trump fired the head of the federal agency that gathers monthly jobs report data and leveled accusations that the numbers were “rigged” following a dismal July reading and downward revisions to previous hiring data.
As of late Friday afternoon, the president hadn’t shared any public comment following the first Bureau of Labor Statistics report filed since the ouster of BLS commissioner Erika McEntarfer, and the numbers are even more gloomy.
U.S. employers added only 22,000 new positions last month, falling far short of the 75,000 predicted in a Dow Jones survey of economists ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation Report for July. The national unemployment rate moved up to 4.3% in July, the highest level since 2021.
The report, which compiles data gathered in surveys of both U.S. households and businesses, found job gains in some employment sectors were offset by losses in federal government positions, which declined by 15,000 last month, while manufacturing lost 12,000 jobs and wholesale trade employment jobs also dropped by 12,000 positions.
While Trump had not offered a public weigh-in on the jobs report as of Friday afternoon, the president continued to cast doubt on BLS data Thursday, saying “real” jobs numbers will come next year, according to a report from The Hill.
“They come out tomorrow, but the real numbers that I’m talking about are going to be whatever it is, but will be in a year from now on,” Trump said at a Thursday dinner with tech sector executives.
Friday’s BLS report also included revisions to previously reported data, adjustments that are typical as late survey submissions and seasonal adjustments are accounted for. While July’s job gains were revised up slightly to 79,000 from 73,000, June’s adjusted job numbers showed a loss of 13,000 positions that month, the first negative employment month since December 2020.
“The job market is stalling short of the runway,” Daniel Zhao, chief economist at jobs site Glassdoor, told CNBC. “The labor market is losing lift, and August’s report, along with downward revisions, suggests we’re heading into turbulence without the soft landing achieved.”
So far in 2025, monthly job gains have averaged 74,750, according to BLS data. Excluding the pandemic, that’s the slowest average monthly gain for that January to August time frame since 2010, when the United States was still licking its wounds from the Great Recession, per a report from CNN.
Will new job numbers lead to a interest rate cut?
Most economists see Friday’s report as all but assuring the Federal Reserve will make a cut to its benchmark interest rate when the monetary body gathers for its next policy meeting later this month.
At the central bank’s annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, late last month, Fed chairman Jerome Powell offered an oblique foreshadowing of a potential reduction by its rate-setting Open Market Committee.
“With policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance,” Powell said.
During a speech at the Jackson Hole gathering, Powell said “downside risks” to the U.S. labor market were on the rise and noted job figures over the last three months, an average of 35,000 new positions per month, are down markedly from the 186,000 new jobs per month average in 2024. He also underscored inflation issues and the impact of new trade tariffs on consumer prices, though noted that the full scope of tariff increases remained uncertain.
Trump and his administration have taken aim at Powell and the Fed’s policy direction since the president began his second term, accusing the body of waiting too long to make downward adjustments to its benchmark federal funds rate.
While the Fed made three consecutive rate cuts at its final meetings of 2024, shaving off a total of 100 basis points, the 4.25% to 4.5% range has held steady since Trump began his second term. The president has argued that the current rate window is three points higher than where it should be.
Trump has delivered mixed signals on taking action against Powell, threatening to fire him or indicating he will wait until the Fed chairman’s term expires next year to name a replacement.
White House officials have also leveled allegations of wrongdoing against Fed governor Lisa Cook.
On Thursday, the Justice Department opened a criminal investigation into Cook, issuing subpoenas as part of an inquiry into whether she submitted fraudulent information on mortgage applications, according to U.S. officials familiar with the matter, per a report from The Wall Street Journal.
Last week, Cook filed her own legal action in an attempt to block Trump’s attempt to fire her ahead of the DOJ action.
